Is AI a Major Threat to the Majority of Human Jobs?
Technology Trends

Is AI a Major Threat to the Majority of Human Jobs?

📅 March 21, 2019 ⏱ 4 min read ✍️ Jacques Nyilinkindi
AI Future of Work Automation Technology Policy Innovation

The Conversation I Had with a Junior Developer

Last week, a junior on my team asked: "Should I still bother learning to code? AI can write code now. Will I even have a job in 5 years?"

Honest answer? I don't know. Nobody does.

But here's what I've observed over the past 2 years of working with AI daily.

What AI Took from Me

Tasks I used to do that AI now handles:

  • Boilerplate code: CRUD endpoints, database models, API clients. AI writes these faster than I can.
  • Unit tests: "Write tests for this function." AI generates 10 test cases in 5 seconds.
  • Documentation: "Document this API." AI writes better docs than I would have.
  • Code reviews: AI catches null pointer bugs, style issues, security problems I'd miss when tired.
  • Debugging simple issues: "Why is this crashing?" AI spots the typo immediately.

These tasks? They're maybe 30% of my job. And I don't miss them.

What AI Can't Take from Me (Yet)

Things I still do that AI can't:

  • Understanding business context: "We need this feature because our biggest customer is threatening to leave." AI doesn't know that.
  • Making tradeoffs: "Ship fast vs. ship perfect?" AI can't decide. Requires judgment.
  • Designing systems: "How should we architect this for 10x growth?" AI gives generic advice. Doesn't know our constraints.
  • Debugging weird production issues: "The bug only happens on Tuesdays for users in California." AI has no idea.
  • Mentoring humans: "You're struggling with async code. Here's how I learned it." Can't outsource this.
  • Communicating with non-engineers: "Let me explain to the CEO why this will take 3 months." AI can't do this.

These are 70% of my job. The important 70%.

Jobs That Changed, Not Disappeared

History lesson: When calculators were invented, people said "mathematicians will lose their jobs!"

What actually happened? Mathematicians stopped doing arithmetic and started solving harder problems.

Same thing here. Developers aren't disappearing. The job is changing.

Old developer job: Write code.
New developer job: Understand problems, design solutions, review AI-generated code, fix what AI gets wrong.

The Jobs Actually at Risk

Let me be blunt. Some programming jobs are at risk:

  • Pure code writers: If your job is "take this spec, write code exactly as specified," yeah, AI can do that.
  • Junior developers who don't learn beyond basics: If you stop at "I can write a for loop," you're in trouble.
  • Developers who resist AI: If you refuse to use AI tools, you'll be 3x slower than those who do.

The Jobs That Are Safe (and Growing)

  • Problem solvers: People who understand messy business requirements and translate them into technical solutions.
  • System designers: People who can architect systems for scale, reliability, security.
  • AI wranglers: People who know how to get good output from AI tools (prompt engineering is a real skill).
  • Domain experts: Developers who deeply understand a specific industry (healthcare, finance, logistics).
  • Tech leads & managers: People who coordinate teams, make decisions, mentor others.

What I Told That Junior Developer

"Yes, keep learning to code. But don't just learn syntax. Learn:

  • How to break down complex problems
  • How to design systems that don't fall over
  • How to work with AI as a tool (like you'd learn Git or Kubernetes)
  • How to communicate with non-technical people
  • How to mentor others

These skills? They're more valuable than ever. Because in a world where anyone can generate code, the people who know WHAT to build and WHY it matters? They're irreplaceable."

My Honest Prediction

5 years: We'll need fewer junior developers. Seniors will use AI to 10x their output. Junior roles will be more competitive.

10 years: "Developer" might mean something different. Maybe we'll call it "Software Architect" or "AI Solution Designer." But there will still be jobs.

20 years: No idea. But historically, technology creates more jobs than it destroys. Just different jobs.

What to Do Right Now

  1. Learn to use AI tools. GitHub Copilot, ChatGPT, Claude. Use them daily. Get good at them.
  2. Focus on the hard skills. System design, debugging, communication. AI can't replace these (yet).
  3. Build domain expertise. Become the developer who understands healthcare regulations or financial compliance. That's valuable.
  4. Don't panic. Every generation of developers faced "this will automate us away" predictions. We adapted. You will too.

Will AI take your job? Maybe some parts of it. Will there still be a job? Yes. Just a different, more interesting one.

And honestly? I'm excited to see what that looks like.